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There is a theory about real estate investment and its called real estate investment in the path of growth. Most real estate economic books touch upon this important subject. But adapting the theory required some out of the box thinking. Guessing where the next big popular living area will be and bet on it is the name of the game.
The theory will tell you to look at the things that are desirable, necessary or convenient to guess where the path of growth will be before you make your bet. These are the list of the things that are important to consider. Geography is the most important factor. You can certainly not with ease build on top of a mountain. Even if down in the valley next to this mountain is crowded with people. With same token you cannot build on unstable cliffs next to ocean or on the ocean itself.
The other factor is environmental consideration. Here in northern California we have acres after acres prime real estate, which is protected by California laws some times driven by private clubs like Sierra Club. The prime examples are the areas in Sunol close to Pleasanton and Redwood Shore close in San Mateo County. So if you see a lot of land in very green area very close to highly populated area, there is good chance, those acreages are protected by law and nobody can build on them.
Stay also away from areas with very bad schools or with high crime rates. Builders are smart and they do not risk their dollars on hard to sell areas.
Now what should you look for. First of all look for new projects. New railroads, project to widen some highways. Generally growth follows the high ways. In some cases when the capacity of highway has been reached its maximum tolerable traffic congestion, it will have a negative effect of the prices. A prime example is the boom of housing in Tracy California, which made highway 205 very congested. That had a negative impact on the prices in Tracy, Mountain House and Lathrop California. Now with new rail project and plans to widen highway 205, this area can experience a growth once these infrastructures are in place.
Also make sure that there is no flat land left within a few miles of the existing commercial and residential area, before you invest in hillside properties. Because of higher cost of putting foundations, these lands will not attract developers until almost all the flat buildable lands are consumed.
Lands close to water steams and oceans can be a problem too. Sometimes there are regulations how far from a creek you are allowed to build. If you purchase a small land with a creek going right in the middle of it, there is a chance that creek make all or part of that land not buildable.
Fortunately, because of excellent weather in Northern California, underlying population growth has been here for hundreds of years. Recent high tech comeback from the slump in year 2000 also provides underlying financial strength for price appreciation. So as long as interest rates stays on the current levels, soon the current slump in real estate will be a distant memory are everybody again can make money on real estate. The ones who understand buying in path of growth theory and apply it right will make much more money though, maybe two or three time more than average investors.
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